Iran: Why Scooter may or may not be pardoned.

With almost no approval left accept for his pure base, George W. Bush has to weigh his options on the possibility of pardoning Scooter Libby or commuting his sentence. With the possibility of a military strike against Iran as a looming possibility on a daily basis and still waiting for his troop surge policy to be validated the pardon or sentencing of Scooter Libby will play an important role in support for Bush's polices in the Mid East and his overall domestic approval.

This issue is really two fold in essence. Scooter Libby stands as an architect of the Iraq policy and is representative of the mistakes and deceptions that have colored the conflict in a negative way, and hence should be left to go to jail thus showing a broad range of Americans in a silent and passive way that the ramp up to the Iraq war and the way it was conducted will not be repeated and that someone has to atone for those sins. On the other hand he also is representative of the Neo-conservative and conservative base of the Bush support pillar that has built the mess in Iraq and the Middle East. The question is this: Is it important for a more broad range of Americans to support Bush in his ramp up to war with Iran? Or is it more important for his base to be solidified for war with Iran? Up until now Bush has chosen the latter. Needless to say he is probably one of the most polarizing figures in the history of American politics. He's a lame duck president essentially at this point and why not keep to what has worked in the past, but it is more probable that long term goals like the usurpation of Iranian sovereignty and control of their oil rights has more lasting and decisive effects on the reasoning of those in the Bush administration than any one man or movement in this country is concerned.

In the final analysis the conservatives have served their purpose and haven't been shown to sway right of center moderates or cross-over political supporters to any of Bush's policies, most important war. If Scooter needs to be thrown to the wolves to make up for the mistakes of the PR campaign associated with the Iraq war to wage a better and more credible campaign for war with Iran than that is what will occur. The Bush administration is sending out mixed signals all over the place and gauging what political effect and or currency that they might develop as a result of Scooter Libby's fate. If history is any lesson Nixon was forced to let his closest advisors go to jail for at least a quarter of their term from some crimes that weren't directly related to the deaths of American service people and innocent civilians. In the end Scooter's and Dick Cheney's campaign to wage the Iraq war was duplicitous, deceitful, and full of holes. It was rammed down the throat of America and has caused the needless deaths of thousands of people. Many in America see this as the case and they want somebody to pay for all of the lies, this is Scooter.

If one was to advise Bush, one should caution the embattled president to let Scooter hang and atone for the administration's sins on the Iraq war PR campaign at least for now. Bush will most likely let Scooter serve part of his sentence and pardon him after the dust has settled down, or until the US is safely engaged in Iran. Although conservatives may be up in arms, some calling for blood on the Iraq war deceptions will be temporarily placated by time served by Dick Cheney's former aide. This would clear some of the deck on the perception of dishonesty with the Bush administration's call for war with Iraq. Letting Scooter go to jail may indicate, to some anyway, that Bush wants to distance himself from the PR policies put into action for the Iraq war, causing just enough people to think that maybe he didn't exactly approve of how it made him look. This could be very helpful in initiating military engagement in Iran.